Friday, February 8, 2013

“228” Blog:
The Nate Silver of Figure Skating

Personal Bests for Skaters Competeting in Worlds

Yu-Na Kim228.56
Mao Asada205.50
Carolina Kostner194.71
Adelina Sotnikova193.99
Ashley Wagner192.41
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva188.85
Akiko Suzuki187.79
Kanako Murakami178.59
Kaetlyn Osmond176.45
Gracie Gold175.03

Personal Bests for Skaters Competeting in  4 Continents Championships

Mao Asada205.50
Ashley Wagner192.41
Akiko Suzuki187.79
Kanako Murakami178.59
Kaetlyn Osmond176.45
Gracie Gold175.03

Figure Skating

YearGrand Prix FinalWorlds (year before Olympics)Olympics

Madge SyersMadge Syers
N/AMagda Julin Sweden
Herma SzaboHerma Szabo
Sonja HenieSonja Henie
Sonja HenieSonja Henie
Sonja HenieSonja Henie
Barbara Ann ScottBarbara Ann Scott
Jeannette AltweggJeannette Altwegg
Tenley AlbrightTenly Albright
Carol HeissCarol Heiss
Sjoukje DijkstraSjoukje Dijkstra
Peggy FlemingPeggy Flemming
Trixi SchubaBeatrix Schuba
Dianne de LeeuwDorothy Hamil
Linda FratianneAnett Pötzsch
Rosalyn SumnersKatrina Witt
Katrina WittKatrina Witt
Kristia YamaguchiKristi Yamaguchi
Oksana BaiulOksana Baiul
1998Tara LipinskiTara LipinskiTara Lipinski
2002Irina SlutskayaMichelle KwanSarah Hughes
2006Mao AsadaIrina SlutskayaSizuka Arakawa
2010Yu-Na KimYu-Na KimYu-Na Kim

Seventeen out of twtney-two Olympic Gold medalists also won Worlds the Year Before.

That means that who ever wins Worlds this Year is likely to win the OGM.

World Figure Skating Championships
YearGrand Prix Final WinnerWorlds Winner
1995-1996Michelle KwanMichelle Kwan
1996-1997Tara LipinskiTara Lipinski
1997-1998Tara LipinskiMichelle Kwan
1998-1999Tatiana MalininaMaria Butyrskaya
1999-2000Irina SlutskayaMichelle Kwan
2000-2001Irina SlutskayaMichelle Kwan
2001-2002Irina SlutskayaIrina Slutskaya
2002-2003Sasha CohenMichelle Kwan
2003-2004Fumie SuguriShizuka Arakawa
2004-2005Irina SlutskayaIrina Slutskaya
2005-2006Mao AsadaKimmie Meissner
2006-2007Yu-Na KimMiki Ando
2007-2008Yu-Na KimMao Asada
2008-2009Mao AsadaYu-Na Kim
2009-2010Yu-Na KimMao Asada
2010-2011Alissa CzisnyMiki Ando
2011-2012Carolina KostnerCarolina Kostner
2012-2013Mao Asada

Only THREE of the SEVENTEEN Grand Prix Final winners went on to win the world championships that year.

That means that Mao is unlikely to win the worlds this year.

Since Mao Asada is unlikely to win Worlds, Mao Asasada is also unlikely to win the OGM next year.

Junior World Championships
SeasonJunior Grand Prix Final WinnerJunior Worlds Winner
1997-1998Julia SoldatovaJulia Soldatova
1998-1999Viktoria VolchkovaDaria Timoshenko
1999-2000Deanna StellatoJennifer Kirk
2000-2001Ann Patrice McDonoughKristina Oblasova
2001-2002Miki AndoAnn Patrice McDonough
2002-2003Yukina OtaYukina Ota
2003-2004Miki AndoMiki Ando
2004-2005Mao AsadaMao Asada
2005-2006Yu-Na KimYu-Na Kim
2006-2007Caroline ZhangCaroline Zhang
2007-2008Mirai NagasuRachel Flatt
2008-2009Becky BereswillAlena Leonova
2009-2010Kanako MurakamiKanako Murakami
2010-2011Adelina SotnikovaAdelina Sotnikova
2011-2012Julia LipnitskaiaJulia Lipnitskaia
2012-2013Elena Radionova

Nine out of the 15 Junior Grand Prix FInal winners went on to win the Junior World Championships that year.

Based on this data, it is likely that Elena Radionova will win the Junior World Championships this year.

Other interesting trends.

The Republican Presidential Party almost always nominates the next-in-line candidate.  For example, John McCain was second to George W. Bush in 2000.  Mitt Romney tied for second place to John Mccain in 2008.  Mitt Romney was the GOP Nominee in 2012.

For the past 4 years, the winner of the Super Bowl has played the Eagles in the Eagles home opener.

For the past 6 years, the NFC Champion has played against the AFC East.

Five out of ten times and for each of the past three, the winner of the ladies American Gymnastics Cup has gone on to win the olympic gold medal in individual All-Around.

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